If Policymakers Sacrifice Bonds and the Dollar to Support Stocks, How Should Investors Hedge?
If Policymakers Sacrifice Bonds and the Dollar to Support Stocks, How Should Investors Hedge? Markets are starting to debate a provocative macro thesis: Scott Bessent at Treasury and Kevin Warsh at the Federal Reserve are signaling that they may tolerate pain in the bond market and weakness in the U.S. dollar if that is the price of keeping nominal equities supported. That does not mean a Plaza Accord 2.0 is guaranteed. It does not mean policymakers will stand at a podium and announce, “We are devaluing the dollar.” Modern currency regimes rarely work that cleanly. But it does mean investors should take seriously the possibility that policy reaction functions are changing. If fiscal policy remains equity-friendly, if monetary policy communicates less fear of asset-price inflation, and if Treasury policy prioritizes financing flexibility over bondholder comfort, the market can do the devaluation work by itself. ...